The growing unrest in Syria has Israel worrying about who
will get some of Syria’s advanced weapons. Israel believes that Lebanese
terror group Hezbollah is taking possession of some Syrian long-range
missiles and chemical weapons. This is unlike Libya, where last year’s civil
war left weapons storage sites unguarded and subject to looting and weapons
being sold to smugglers and terror groups. In Syria, the government has
maintained control of its bases, although these places are increasingly
under attack by armed rebels. But Syria and Lebanon are supported by Iran,
and Iran wants Hezbollah to come out of this Syrian mess stronger, even if
the pro-Iran Syrian government disappears.
Hezbollah knows that it wants from Syria. Two years ago, Hezbollah
apparently received over a hundred M600 ballistic missiles from Syria. These
were stored in northern Syria, outside the town of Masyaf. There, using
Google Earth you can see five compounds that appear closed to all but
authorized personnel. Inside these compounds there are entrances to bunkers
dug into adjacent hills. These bunkers are believed to hold munitions,
including missiles being shipped to Hezbollah facilities in Lebanon. There,
hundreds of tunnels and bunkers are used for storing Hezbollah munitions,
personnel and vehicles. Satellite and aerial photos have seen weapons being
brought in and out of these tunnels.
Syria denies providing Hezbollah with any weapons, but the traffic is hard
to conceal. Hezbollah appears to have recently received another 30-40 M600
missiles, plus SA-8 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile systems. The SA-8
is an older (1980s) system with a radar that can detect aircraft 30
kilometers away. The SA-8 missiles have a range of 15 kilometers, and are
shipped six to a storage/launcher container. One of these containers and the
search radar is mounted on a 17 ton, 6×6 vehicle. Hezbollah may also have
obtained the more recent SA-17, but these were recently bought by Syria
(with Iranian cash) for Iran and some SA-17s have already shown up in Iran.
As for the Syrian chemical weapons, Syria has been warned by the United
States and Syria that if these weapons were transferred to terrorist groups,
the people running Syria would be held personally responsible (that is,
hunted down and killed or captured and prosecuted). But with the Syrian
dictatorship on the ropes and desperate, those threats may not be as
frightening as they once were.
The Syrian built M600 missile is a copy of the Iranian Fateh which, in turn,
is a copy of the Chinese DF-11A (which had a range of 400 kilometers). The
M600 is an 8.86 meter (27.5 foot), 3.5 ton rocket with a half-ton warhead.
Range is 250-300 kilometers. This might account for the reports, three years
ago, that Syria had provided Hezbollah with SCUD missiles. Both the M600 and
SCUD are ballistic missiles, but the M600 is a more modern design. SCUD was
developed from the German World War II era V-2.
Hezbollah is also known to have some Fajr-5 rockets, and to have recently
received a few more. This is a one ton guided missile based the old Soviet
unguided artillery rockets (the larger ones). Fajr-5 has a range of about 75
kilometers and a 91 kg (200 pound) warhead. The guidance system is crude,
and the Fajr-5 will land up to kilometer from its aim point. Hezbollah is
also believed to have some Iranian Zalzal rockets. These are based on the
old Soviet unguided FROG series, and is no more accurate than the Fajr-5,
weighs three tons, has a 636 kg (1,400 pound) warhead and a range of about
200 kilometers. Both of these missiles use solid fuel and, by U.S.
standards, decades old technology. But they allow Hezbollah to hit targets
throughout most of Israel.
All these weapons, except for the SCUDS, use solid fuel, meaning they can be
launched within ten minutes of the vehicle carrier/launcher halting.
Hezbollah is believed have these launcher vehicles hidden throughout
southern Lebanon, and able to exit caves or buildings and promptly fire. If
Israel does not know some of the hiding places, then some of these missiles
can be fired.
During the 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah fired some 4,000 rockets, most of
them shorter range (20 kilometers) 122mm BM-21 models. They fired a few
longer range rockets at urban areas, and the larger warheads did a lot of
damage and caused some casualties. Israeli civil defense plans now take into
account more long range missiles being fired by Hezbollah in the future,
even though Israel has Patriot and Arrow anti-missile systems deployed. But
if Hezbollah, or Syria and Iran, can fire too many missiles at once, Israeli
anti-missile defenses will be overwhelmed.
This article appeared here:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/20120123.aspx
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