Middle East Simmering – Recent Events

Following are some of the events of the last ten days that mark the dramatic changes now taking place in the Middle East:

Monday, February 13  -   President Barack Obama warned Iran on sanctions. He said Washington would impose more sanctions to address the “serious threat presented by Iran’s nuclear program.”

Tuesday, February 14  -  Iran announced that it has begun loading domestic nuclear fuel rods into its research reactor in Tehran. Iran’s official IRNA news agency broadcast the ceremony live, showing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inserting the first Iranian-made nuclear fuel rod into the reactor in north Tehran and being briefed by nuclear experts.

Wednesday, February 15  -  Iran warned six European buyers on oil supply. Iran said it might strike first by immediately cutting them off from Iranian oil. At the same time, Iran’s Oil Ministry immediately contradicted this report by denying media reports that it would stopping its crude exports to six EU nations on Wednesday.

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said that the country is ready to resume talks over its nuclear program, according to a letter received by world powers today. Secretary of State said, “This is what we have been waiting for.”

Thursday, February 16  -  The Obama administration announced the imposition of sanctions on Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, on the grounds that it supports global terrorism, commits human rights abuses against Iranians, and is involved in the Assad government’s oppression in Syria. The step freezes their assets in U.S. jurisdictions, prevents Americans from engaging in business with the Ministry, and bans Ministry employees from travel to the United States. The move is largely symbolic as the Ministry does not have holdings in the US.

National Director of Intelligence James Clapper thinks Al-Qaeda in Syria. He said that Al-Qaeda’s branch in Iraq was most likely responsible for a recent series of suicide bombings in Syria, and has infiltrated opposition forces fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Iran’s top oil buyers in Europe made substantial cuts in supply from Iran months before >>European Union sanctions take place, which will reduce Iranian oil sales to the continent in March by more than a third – or over 300,000 barrels daily.

Friday, February 17  -  SWIFT announced sanctions against Iran.  The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication announced that it was “ready to implement sanctions against Iranian financial institutions” in response to new regulations the EU is set to enact.

Saturday, February 18  –  Data collected by an early-warning NATO radar system in Turkey will not be transferred to Israel, both Turkish and NATO officials confirmed Feb. 17, underlining that the missile defense project was designed to protect NATO territories and populations. “Data is shared within our allies, among our allies. It’s a defensive system to protect the populations of NATO allies,” Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters at a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

In Tokyo, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that a nuclear-armed Iran would trigger an arms race in the Middle East and called on the nations of the world to impose “crippling” sanctions” on Tehran to force it to give up its atomic program.

Sunday, February 19  -  Iran discontinued oil supplies to the UK and France. Iran’s Oil Ministry spokesman said that Iran will be “selling its oil to new customers”. The decision is not expected to have a big impact, as France only bought three percent of its oil − 58,000 barrels a day − from the Islamic republic last year, and Britain buys less than 1 per cent. But it was seen as a warning shot to other EU nations that are bigger consumers of Iranian oil, including Italy, Spain and Greece. The latter would be the most affected, should Iran go ahead with the cuts, as crisis-hit Greece gets more that 30 percent of its oil needs from the Islamic Republic.

For the second time in a year, two Iranian warships passed through the Suez Canal bound for Syria. The destroyer Shahid Qandi and the Kharg supply ship docked in Jedda two days ago, and were reported to have docked in the Syrian port of Tartus, according to Iranian English radio, IRIB. On February 22, 2011, two Iranian battleships, the battle ship Alvand and the supply ship Kharg passed through the Suez Canal and docked at the Syrian port of Latakiya, the first time an Iranian vessel of any kind had passed through the Suez Canal since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Latest reports (Tuesday, February 21) from Washington say that the two ships never reached the Syrian port, and has now turned around and passed back through the Suez Canal.,

Diplomats, whose identities remain secret, reported that Iran is now poised to greatly expand uranium enrichment at a fortified underground bunker. This would enhance Iran’s ability to make nuclear warheads more quickly, the diplomats said, according to The Associated Press. They said Iran is close to putting thousands of new-generation centrifuges on-line soon, but emphasized that Iran had not yet started installing the new machines at its Fordo facility. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced to a large rally marking the anniversary of the Iranian revolution. “Allah willing”, he said, “in the coming days, the world will see Iran showcasing some very big nuclear achievements”.

In a nationally televised interview with the CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” show on Sunday, General Martin E. Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff , urged Israel to show restraint, calling Iran “a rational actor” and saying that it would be “premature” to take military action against Iran in response to its nuclear program. Incredibly, he added, ““We also know, or we believe we know that Iran has not decided to make a nuclear weapon”.

National Security Adviser Tom Donilon had a stormy meeting with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, according to sources in Washington. The main issues revolved around a basic difference in assessing Iran’s uranium enrichment and its continuing relocation to underground sites.

This strong public warning by the US military’s most senior figure was echoed by William Hague, the British foreign secretary, said it was “not a wise thing at this moment” for Israel to launch military action against Iran.

Tuesday, February 20  – Iran’s Threatens Pre-emptive Strike   Deputy head of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces Mohammad Hejazi told Fars news agency, “Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions”. Nevertheless, a top U.S. intelligence official said that while U.S. spy services believed Iran would respond if attacked, he thought Iran was unlikely to initiate a strike against the nuclear plants.

The US continued to support negotiations over a show of force, and put increased pressure on Israel to refrain from an attack against Iran. Visits to Jerusalem from the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, National Security White House press secretary Jay Carney said, “Israel and the United States share the same objective, which is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon . . . There is time and space for diplomacy to work, for the effect of sanctions to result in a change of Iranian behavior”.

Syrian Conflict Worsened Dramatically   The situation in Syria continued to deteriorate over the last ten days, with the US finally admitting that al Qaeda was actively engaged in the opposition fighting. Today’s latest news was that the Assad forces continued their relentless and deadly assault against Syria’s civilian population in Homs, surrounding the city and cutting off water, food, and electricity, and killing at least 50 people around the country today alone.

As the US claims to support the opposition, openly with words and covertly with arms routed through Qatar, we are also supporting the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, who helped to organize the rebellion early on, and al Qaeda which is actively engaged in the conflict as well.

The Assad government continues to be propped up by Iran, supported by Russia and China, and with the help of the IRGC (Iranian Republican Guard Corps) and Hezbollah fighters. Iran has much to lose if the Syrian government falls, and its support of Assad is a large part of the reason the fighting has continued for so long.

As the fighting intensifies, another group of victims of the conflict is all but ignored. The Syrian Christians, who represented 10% of the population, now face annihilation as an outcome of the crisis. Jordan has opened its borders to refugees, as Turkey did months ago, but many Christians are likely to die at the hands of their Muslim countrymen as the West continues to stand by.

Print PDF