The long awaited IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program was leaked yesterday, two days before its scheduled release (see it here). The media hype preceding its release was just that. The report itself was disappointing and contained far less information that the media promised. Anticipated references to North Korean, Russian, and Chinese assistance in Iran’s nuclear militarization program are not even mentioned, although a great deal of intelligence has been available about these for quite some time. There was no definitive statement that Iran poses a nuclear threat or is developing nuclear weapons.
The best the IAEA was able to do was to write, “…The Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities” (Section K Summary)
However, the report also went on to say, “The agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program . . . . This information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device . . . . After assessing carefully and critically the extensive information available to it, the agency finds the information to be, overall, credible.”
After such relatively strong statements, the IAEA rationalized its role and demonstrated its real impotence as a watchdog over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, by concluding, “The Agency will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran unless and until Iran provides the necessary cooperation with the Agency.” (I. Additional Protocol)
Today, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s response to the report was strong. “The IAEA report is unbalanced, unprofessional and politically motivated,” he said in a speech on Iran’s state television. “You should know that this nation will not pull back even a needle’s width from the path it is on,” he said “Why do you damage the agency’s dignity because of America’s invalid claims?” he asked.
Iran’s permanent representative to the IAEA Ali-Asghar Soltanieh called the IAEA report “baseless” and “politically motivated.”
The end result is that this report will do nothing to discourage Iran’s further development of its military nuclear capability. Neither will it encourage the US, UK, and France to recognize the true threat that Iran represents. The leaders of the West will continue to sit on the sidelines and talk about sanctions. Israel, the most likely first target of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, will be left to figure out how best to deal with the imminent threat to its population.
According to BBC, Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi disparaged the report even before its contents were known. He called it “an advertising campaign”, and said that any evidence presented by the agency would be baseless and fabricated. Ironically, the report gives barely any solid information about Iran’s military intentions for its nuclear development. Iran recently announced that it would produce triple the amount of medium-enriched uranium than originally planned. Experts believe that further enrichment of its existing stockpile of uranium gives Iran enough raw material to make two or three nuclear weapons.
Analysis: From Iran’s point of view, it is hardly useful to be completely open with the IAEA about the military dimensions of its nuclear program. It is far better to keep their strategic plans secret as they continue to move towards a military nuclear capability.
Intelligence from GerardDirect sources suggests that Russia, North Korea, and China are all playing significant roles in the development of Iran’s nuclear capability for military purposes. This includes supporting the technology for designing a bomb small enough to be fitted on Iran’s Shahab missile warhead (see video below).
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made his intentions clear: first Israel, then America. In a recent conversation with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad promised that Israel’s “case should be closed once and for all and the region delivered from their evil ways forever,” according to the state news agency IRNA, as reported in Haaretz. “[Israel] can be compared to a kidney transplanted in a body that rejected it,” he said. “Yes, it will collapse and its end will be near.”
Ahmadinejad believes his rhetoric and is likely to have no qualms about bringing his prophecy to fruition. Whatever he has been able to hide from the AIEA has made it possible for him to continue to fool the world about both his plans and his nation’s nuclear capabilities, and the greater the shock will be when he unleashes his nuclear power on the world.
Despite the hype, the IAEA report was nothing more than a shaggy dog story that kept our attention until the very end, but then it left us disappointed because it told us very little that we didn’t already know.
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Ilana Freedman is an intelligence analyst with over twenty years of experience in the field. She is Editor of GerardDirect.
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