The dynamic changes that have taken place in the Middle East over the last year have led to the most volatile and dangerous situation in recent history, one that could be a precursor to a global war. As the final returns from Egypt are revealed, the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to control the Parliament with at least 40% of the vote. The Justice Party, which represents the secular students and young professionals who began the ‘pro-democracy’ demonstrations at the beginning of the year, received no more than 10% of the vote.
A coalition between the Brotherhood’s “Freedom and Justice Party” and other Islamist parties will quickly seal Egypt’s future, giving the Islamist bloc a comfortable majority in the Parliament. Middle East News Agency (MENA), the government-controlled news agency reports that although the final results had been expected to be announced late on Thursday, they have been delayed until Friday because of the large voter turnout that has slowed down the counting process. This is only the first round of six rounds of parliamentary elections that will continue until March 2012. While the voting is far from over, unlike the West’s instant election returns, the die appears to have been cast and the outcome is fairly certain.
On February 12, 2011, the morning after Mubarak’s resignation was announced on Egyptian television, I wrote about this in a forecast posted in IntelAnalysis (precursor to GerardDirect):
“The euphoria that swept through the crowded streets on Friday evening will be soon replaced with the stark reality of whatever comes next. The revolution was dubbed the “Pro-democracy Demonstrations”, but it is far from clear that democracy is what Egypt is going to get.
The orderly conduct of the continually growing demonstrations is indicative of a movement that, while it appeared spontaneous, has become, in reality, extremely well organized. The organization behind the order is none other than the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, whose members, once banned in Egypt, now hand out food and water and set up porta-potties to the hundreds of thousands of demonstrators, in order to keep them in the streets.
Although the Muslim Brotherhood currently disavows any political interests and its leaders have said publicly that they will not field candidates in any future elections, we predict that their actions over the coming months will prove this to be a ruse, used to mollify suspicion. Their real agenda will become clear soon enough, and I believe that it will be one in which their hunger for political power is at the top of the list.”
The promised results from the “pro-democracy” revolutions that ousted Tunisia’s Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh now look further away than ever, as the Islamist movement positions itself to defeat any change towards democratic governments. The developing civil war in Syria is likely to go the same way.
The impact that this will have on world events will be significant. The deposed tyrants are most likely to be replaced by a tyranny of a different sort that will subjugate women under newly imposed Shari’ah law, and treat those who do not adhere to religious Islam as second class citizens, as Shari’a law requires.
Loss of Stability Egypt has been a stabilizing force throughout the region for the last 30 years, since its peace treaty with Israel was signed. The treaty has kept the region in relative calm since then as the two countries developed a functioning relationship. This is about to end.
With the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood, the character of Egyptian life is likely to change dramatically, turning from a secular society to an Islamic one. Here too, women will find their freedoms curtailed, and Coptic Christians, who represent about 10% of the population of 80 million, will find the very life of their community at risk. The changes may come slowly, but they seem inevitable.
The Coptic Christians have already felt the change. The random pogroms that have occurred from time to time in the past, may now be perceived as sanctioned events in which mobs of Muslims will attack their churches, their homes, their shops, and their lives. The riots that took place less than two months ago may give us an idea of how this may look. The following account of what happened may provide an idea of what the future holds for Coptic Christians:
On October 9, Christians took to the streets of Cairo to protest the partial destruction of a church in Aswan province the week before by Muslim radicals. The army opened live fire on the demonstrators and drove their armored personnel carriers into the crowd, running over at least five demonstrators. Eyewitnesses reported that the army disposed of several bodies by throwing them in the Nile. The rioting quickly spread to Alexandria, where Christians and Muslims fought running battles against the security forces and each other. 24 Christians were killed that night, and over 200 were wounded.
The day after the demonstrations, thousands of Copts attended the funeral processions of the victims. At the second funeral, Muslims threw bricks at the mourners. Then, according to one account, “On their way back after the burial, the mourners were attacked by armed thugs who blocked the way and hurled Molotov cocktails at them; gun shots were heard. They sought shelter and called the army emergency phone line for help, they waited until the morning but no one came.”
International Intervention A bit further to the north, Syria’s bloody conflict has brought the country into a violent civil war in which more than 4,000 people have been killed. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has gained strength in this latest installment of the ‘Arab Spring’, by organizing the Syrian people and helping to spread the unrest.
Iran and Turkey are also squaring off over Syria, Iran because it wants to maintain its access to Lebanon and the Mediterranean through Syria, and Turkey in order to advance its war with the Sryian Kurds, whom the Turkish government has been targeting for years. While Turkey sits poised on Syria’s northern border, Iran has warned that if the US or Israel should attack, Teheran will retaliate by attacking Turkey.
Meanwhile, warships from the US, Russia, and Iran are now plying the waters of the Mediterranean off the Syrian and Lebanese coast. Iran and Russia have also deployed ships in the Red Sea, south of Israel.
Hezbollah has taken over southern Lebanon and is now thought to have more than 80,000 rockets and missiles, provided by Iran, and pointed at Israel. A new report of a suicide terrorist within Israel (a first for Hezbollah) has also emerged in the last few days.
Finally, Hamas is actively developing its weapons strength in Gaza, with supplies brought in from the Sinai in Egypt. If it weren’t all so deadly serious, it would sound like the complex plot for some grade B novel of international intrigue.
The Center of the Storm Iran is now flexing its muscles as it nears nuclear capability. While the recent mysterious explosions at key nuclear sites have raised questions about how great a setback Iran is facing in its race towards nuclear weapons, Teheran denies that the explosions even took place. The government continues to sow seeds of chaos.
Monday’s violent attack on the British Embassy in Teheran by a mob of young Iranians has led to the most serious diplomatic break in recent years. Today, the UK announced that it had evacuated all the diplomatic staff from Iran. The Iranian charge d’affaires in London was informed in no uncertain terms that Iran would be required to close its embassy in London immediately and that all Iranian diplomatic staff must leave the United Kingdom within 48 hours.
Iran’s saber rattling has now become more than words. It is violent and open. The British Embassy attack was far too reminiscent of the US Embassy attack in 1973, when diplomatic personnel were held hostage for 444 days. The latest egregious breach of diplomatic sovereignty is far too serous to ignore.
Analysis In understanding Iran today, we cannot apply our Western point of view and expect to achieve any reasonable outcome for the West. Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khameini march to a very different drummer and their logic is nothing like our own. They define Iranian policy in relation to the coming of their messiah, the Mahdi, an event which they believe they can influence by creating nuclear pandemonium. According to Shi’a belief, the Mahdi will reappear when the world has fallen into chaos, and when the peoples of the world have become embroiled in war. The war will continue, according to the Quran, until “all chaos ceases, and all religion belongs to Allah”. (Quran 8:39).
This driving force enables Iran to create havoc both at home and abroad. America missed an extraordinary opportunity when the Green Revolution in 2009, protesting Ahmadinejad’s fraudulent election, was brutally put down. The silence from the White House was so loud that it provided demonstrable encouragement to Iran. Ahmadinejad understood our silence to mean that he could continue Iran’s nuclear development unhindered, and advance his plans for global domination at will.
“They that sow the wind, shall reap the whirlwind.” The gathering forces in the Middle East are leading the world into a war whose consequences we can only imagine. Moreover, once a critical trigger point has been reached, turning back from the brink of war will no longer be possible. The dynamics of the events put in motion by states unwilling to apply statesmanship instead of politics will draw us all into a war we can no longer avoid.
The world looks to tiny Israel to end the threat of a nuclear Iran. That is part of the nonsense of international politics, not statesmanship. Although this may not be an insurmountable task for Israel, whose technological capability far exceeds its relative size, it is cowardly for the leaders of the West to abdicate their own responsibility for keeping the world safe from another global conflict. I have written frequently about the region as being “a spark in search of a gas leak”. The situation has never been more dangerous and the spark is closer to the leak than ever before.
It can still be hoped that wise heads will prevail before it is too late to turn back. It is time for the leaders of the free world to find the courage to lead the world away from war.
_________________
Ilana Freedman is Senior Editor of GerardDirect. An intelligence analyst with over twenty years experience, she writes frequently on the events that are driving the nations of the world and connects the dots between diverse bits of intelligence to create a deep understanding that she shares with her readers. Ms Freedman welcomes your comments below.
Hezbollah is now thought to have close to 80,000 rockets and missiles, brought into Lebanon through Syria in large, tarp-covered trucks. The rockets are hidden under the canopies of trees in the lush valleys that dot Southern Lebanon, and in the houses of Lebanese civilians, which have either been commandeered or purchased throughout the south, to expand Hezbollah’s reach from within.
They have built extensive military training programs for their youth, some as young as seven. Their Mahdi Scouts are said to number more than 60,000 youngsters who have been trained to hate and to kill. Their targets are the “infidels” and, most particularly, Jews.
The threat emanating from Lebanon is not a local one. Hezbollah’s instructions come directly from Teheran and indirectly through Syria. Iran has supplied them with a massive arsenal that includes rockets, sophisticated missile systems, weapons of mass destruction, and hundreds of Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) officers to train the soldiers and man the weapons now aimed at Israel.
Iran has not invested in Hezbollah lightly. Its own nuclear program, still under international scrutiny, continues apace despite the mounting but ineffectual world pressure against it. A strike by Hezbollah against Israel (with simultaneous strikes from Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank), would effectively distract the world from the final stages of Iran’s nuclear development.
Should Israel be attacked in such a pincer move, with a rain of missiles and rockets targeting its populated areas from north, south, and east, Israel’s response can be expected to be immediate and powerful. And the nations of the world will not stand by silently as the crisis in the Middle East threatens to engulf them in the ensuing global-and most probably nuclear-conflagration.
The likelihood that another war in this inflamed region will remain limited becomes less likely every day. The global ramifications of an assault on Israel, however unimaginable, are nevertheless more likely every day as the situation continues to destabilize. The unintended consequences of decisions made by delusional leaders—Ahmadinejad, Assad, and Nasrallah—for whom conquest is worth risking the world, will be a global inferno that pits radical Islam against everyone else.
What makes this particularly dangerous to us is not just the threat of a third world war. Unlike the last wars, this war will also be fought on US soil. The large presence of Hezbollah members and supporters here in the US present a clear and present danger to us in our heartland.
There are active cells throughout the country, in Dearborn and Detroit, North Carolina, Arizona, and in the volatile and hostile border region of Mexico, to mention only a few. Hezbollah is only one of the dozens of radical Islamic groups that have sprung up around the country, but it may be the most dangerous of them all. The activation of these cells will open a new front for Islamic terrorism, and they will be supported by the other radical Islamic organizations, whose leaders will rally their enthusiastic followers against our society when the time comes.
This is not conspiracy theory. The threat against us right here at home is well documented, and is likely to evolve from theoretical to existential when we least expect it.
The Hezbollah cells in the US take their orders directly from the senior leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon, who in turn take their own orders from Teheran. Their own agenda is based on the tyranny of radical Islam, the conquest of the infidel, and Shari’ah law. It is the one they will carry to battle against the freedom that characterizes the West.
PDF 
